Dilly Dilly vs Salami Tsunami — Week 5 Preview
2026 · Week 5
Dilly Dilly
112.2
Salami Tsunami
118.3
Swing players
- Bijan Robinson22.1
- Josh Allen22.0
- Michael Wilson13.4
Flags
- Christian McCaffreyQuestionable
- Christian WatsonQuestionable
- Roman WilsonIR
- Aaron Jones Sr.Questionableproj 12.7
- Michael WilsonQuestionableproj 13.4
Dilly Dilly vs Salami Tsunami — Week 5 Preview
The Line
Salami Tsunami projects for 118.62, Dilly Dilly for 110.04, which puts Dennis's squad up by 8.58 on the projected spread. The records tell a similar story — Dennis sits at 3-1 while Morten is treading water at 2-2 — so for once the record and the numbers aren't arguing with each other. This is a projection favorite that actually has the record to match.
Where It's Decided
| Position | Home | Edge | Away | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | — | 22.0 | — | |
| RB | — | 45.3 | — | |
| WR | — | 33.4 | — | |
| TE | — | 8.9 | — | |
| DEF | — | 8.7 | — |
The quarterback slot is the headline gap here — Josh Allen's 22.04 over Trevor Lawrence's 17.96 hands Salami Tsunami a -4.08 edge before anything else happens. Running back isn't far behind at -4, which means Dilly Dilly is already down two full scores' worth of projection before you even get to wide receiver, where Morten actually claws back 0.56.
The Swing Players
Bijan Robinson is the single biggest number on the board at 22.24 projected for the running back slot, and if he hits that mark Dilly Dilly's deficit shrinks fast. Josh Allen's 22.04 is right behind him and is the engine of that quarterback gap I just flagged. Morten's own counter, Trevor Lawrence at 17.96, needs to outkick his number just to keep pace. On the injury front, both of Dennis's questionable receivers are projected starters — Jordan Addison at 7.1 and Malik Nabers at 11.6 — so there's downside risk baked into that side even with the overall lead.
The Record vs The Process
Dilly Dilly sits at 2-2 with 431.86 points for against 438.3 against, a differential of -6.44 — a team that's basically broken even on paper despite the shootouts. Salami Tsunami's 3-1 record comes with a 493.26 for, 361.2 against, and a differential of 132.06, which is a gap that says the record isn't lying to you this time. When the underlying point differential backs up the win total this cleanly, I trust the record more than usual.
Stakes
The league needs 6 wins to reach the playoffs, and four or fewer puts a team at risk of landing in Pink, in a season running 14 weeks with 9 weeks left after this one. Plenty of time left for either team to course-correct, but Dilly Dilly's 2-2 start means the margin for error is already thinner. On the power rankings, human consensus has Dilly Dilly at 4 and Salami Tsunami at 2 — the crowd likes Dennis's team more too, so there's no contrarian angle hiding here.
Lineup Note
The suggestion on the board is Malik Washington (9.14 projected) over Jordan Addison (7.1 projected), a gap of 2.04. On paper that's a clean upgrade, but Addison's questionable tag is the only reason he's underperforming his typical role in this model, and questionable tags with a real practice history can still hit their number more often than a bench upgrade of two points justifies. I'd want more than a two-point projected gap to bench a receiver I'd otherwise trust in a featured role, so I'm not making this swap on this evidence alone.
The Call
Salami Tsunami wins this by 8.58. Dennis's team projects ahead across quarterback, running back, and tight end — Josh Allen's 22.04 outscoring Trevor Lawrence's 17.96 is the headline — and that 132.06 point differential backs up the idea that this is simply the stronger roster right now.